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Vision 2030 generates a lot of noise, megaprojects, giga-cities, headline commitments.

Most of that noise is not relevant to the ordinary Tadawul investor.

What is relevant: which sectors are receiving sustained government capital and regulatory support, which listed companies are the execution layer for that spending, and which ones are generating real earnings growth as a result.

This issue covers that, without the PR. 

WHAT VISION 2030 IS ACTUALLY DOING

Vision 2030 launched in 2016 with the goal of reducing Saudi Arabia's reliance on oil revenue. A decade in, the results are real but uneven.

Non-oil GDP now represents approximately 57% of total Saudi economic output, up from around 45% in 2016. Financial services grew 7% in 2025. Tourism surpassed 100 million visits in 2024. The female workforce participation rate has risen from 20% in 2014 to 37% today.

The $600 billion US-Saudi AI and technology investment commitment announced in 2026 represents the newest and largest capital deployment phase. Saudi Arabia is positioning itself as the AI infrastructure hub for the Middle East and North Africa.

FDI is on course to reach $35–40 billion in 2026, a 50% increase on 2025. That capital is being deployed across four sectors in particular.

 SECTOR 1 — BANKING: the execution engine

Every Vision 2030 project requires financing. The banks provide it.

Al Rajhi Bank and SNB are not passive beneficiaries of government spending programmes. They are the credit infrastructure that makes the transformation possible. When a tourism development draws down a construction loan, it draws down from a Saudi bank. When a foreign company establishes an RHQ in Riyadh, it banks with a Saudi institution.

The non-oil credit growth cycle has years left to run. Saudi bank earnings have grown consistently through 2024 and 2025. Al Rajhi's 32% five-year dividend CAGR reflects that earnings trajectory.

Listed plays: Al Rajhi Bank (1120), Saudi National Bank (1180).

SECTOR 2 — TELECOMS: the digital backbone

The AI infrastructure buildout requires networks. 5G deployment, data centres, cloud connectivity, IoT integration.

STC is the dominant network provider in the Kingdom and is already investing heavily in next-generation infrastructure. In May 2026, STC partnered with Humain, Saudi Arabia's AI company, for data centre expansion. That partnership is Vision 2030 executing in real time through the telecom infrastructure.

The fixed SAR0.55 quarterly dividend policy running through Q3 2027 means you get paid while the buildout happens. You do not need to predict the outcome of the AI investment wave to benefit from holding the infrastructure provider.

Listed play: Saudi Telecom STC (7010). 

SECTOR 3 — CONSUMER RETAIL: the domestic demand story

Vision 2030 is deliberately expanding the Saudi domestic consumer economy. Female workforce participation rising to 37% means more household income. Entertainment spending has grown from effectively zero in 2016 to a genuine sector. The tourism infrastructure is creating domestic hospitality and retail demand.

Jarir sits directly in the path of this shift. Electronics, smartphones, books, school supplies, gaming, the product mix tracks discretionary consumer spending. Q1 2026 revenue was up 12% year on year. Net income up 17%.

The consumer rotation inside Saudi Arabia is not a future story. It is happening now.

Listed play: Jarir Marketing (4190).

SECTOR 4 — ENERGY: the anchor

Aramco is the most discussed Saudi stock globally and also the most misunderstood by investors new to the market.

Aramco is not a bet on oil price. It is a bet on Saudi Arabia's ability and willingness to maintain its production position and dividend commitment. Those are different things.

The Vision 2030 fiscal model requires Aramco to generate consistent cash flows regardless of the oil price cycle. The government's ability to fund the transformation depends on it. That alignment of government and shareholder interest in maintaining the dividend is unique among major global energy companies.

The 2.9% annual dividend growth rate is modest. The 5.0% current yield is not the highest in the Tadawul income universe. But the reliability premium is real and not available anywhere else in the market.

Listed play: Saudi Arabian Oil Company (2222).

THE SIMPLE PORTFOLIO CONCLUSION

An investor who holds Aramco, Jarir, Al Rajhi, SNB, and STC is not making a bet on Vision 2030 succeeding in any specific way.

They are making a bet that the Saudi economy continues to function, that banks keep lending, telecoms keep connecting, retailers keep selling, and Aramco keeps producing. Each of those outcomes is significantly more likely than any single megaproject being delivered on time and on budget.

The diversified Tadawul dividend portfolio is the Vision 2030 trade, without the megaproject risk.

— The Quiet Compounder

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